Predicting the Future – Analytics & Forecasts – 2 Could 2023
Greetings !
A lot of the programs on the MQL Market attempt to predict the long run.
The one software we’ve got is historical past.
There is no such thing as a future with out historical past. However find out how to predict it?
Everybody in MQL strives to resolve this query.
Most TOP programs cease working after a while.
1. Cause. Hackers.
As a rule and most frequently this occurs resulting from fixed hacking of those programs by hackers.
Hacking happens utilizing atmosphere emulation by way of msimg32, oleacc and many others.
All these DLLs can help you emulate the working system atmosphere, activation is tied to those mechanisms.
Due to this fact, monitoring all this from the MQL facet is nearly not possible.
After such a hack, the system falls into 1000’s of palms around the globe and around the globe, it’s already placed on stream.
Due to this fact, as a rule, the system reveals itself completely initially of the trail, however then it modifications.
Thankfully, we’ve got realized to cope with this and all our programs are protected against such hacking.
We use an end-to-end encrypted safety server and https, that is already working for us now.
2. Cause. Razor blade.
It is a OVER-optimization. All of us need to have an ideal algorithm that by no means misses.
It is like strolling on a razor’s edge, one incorrect step and also you fall down.
Due to this fact, the developer falls into such a entice, the settings are so good that any change out there breaks them.
It is sort of a fragile home of playing cards, it’s massive, tall and exquisite, but when the wind blows, it should collapse.
It’s potential to create such settings, however will they predict the long run.
And sure and no, it all the time is dependent upon the diploma of volatility of market conditions.
Due to this fact, we all the time have inside safety towards massive information, similar to FOMC and many others.
Slip safety and fixed adaptation to dealer situations, spreads, delays.
Now it already works for all our programs.
3. Cause. Not all brokers are the identical.
All brokers have totally different quotes and totally different spreads.
This is because of totally different quote suppliers and due to this fact they differ.
Due to this fact, the best answer is to create a quite simple technique and make it work.
The extra advanced the algorithm, the upper the possibilities that it’ll not work sooner or later.
4. Cause. Margin of security.
Additionally, do not forget about ahead testing. Particularly if it considerations Grid or Martingale.
The settings will need to have a margin of security, that is additionally essential, you shouldn’t squeeze all of the juice out of the algorithm.
Ahead testing means that you can check the system as much as a sure date.
This requires a quick algorithm and excessive optimization pace
For instance, till December 2022, in the event you obtain glorious settings and so they proceed to work till the present day, you then even have a number of months to verify the system and its settings.
The essential precept right here is that if it labored earlier than, it should work now.
5. Cause. DONT Use Martingale or DONT use just one pair.
Most programs in the marketplace commerce with just one forex pair, these are EURUSD/GBPUSD/USDJPY/GOLD
Such programs could be very costly, though they solely commerce 1 pair.
On the similar time, the programs are all the time closed, it is a black field, you’ll by no means get the parameters to regulate your algorithm and get away from the group.
Some programs don’t also have a actual sign, actual trades and nonetheless use Martingale.
6. Cause Luck
All our programs are multi-currency. Furthermore, all of them commerce concurrently on a number of forex pairs.
For instance GWay makes use of 5 forex devices, DIVO makes use of 12 forex pairs for buying and selling, Eve makes use of 10 pairs.
All these forex pairs have totally different settings, totally different optimization, totally different time frames.
On the similar time, all programs are open, furthermore, you may learn the information and create your personal distinctive settings primarily based on it.
Creating such a multi-currency system is all the time plenty of work and time assets.
It takes roughly 2-3 days to create settings for 1 instrument/forex pair.
It might take 1 month to create all settings for 12 pairs.
Due to this fact, some pairs could commerce barely worse than others.
Out of 1000’s of settings, we all the time select the perfect by way of revenue issue, restoration issue and drawdown.
Then we supply out a ahead verify till in the present day.
And even on this case, the luck issue performs no small function, as a result of we will select the settings a bit worse or higher.
Due to this fact, the luck issue additionally comes into play, particularly when you’ve gotten 12 forex pairs to commerce, and never 1 and the one with the Martingale…
However then again, we will all the time select solely the perfect forex pairs from an enormous checklist simply in your dealer.
I hope these causes and penalties will make it easier to select the easiest way to verify and analyze programs in MQL.
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