I Disagree – Meb Faber Analysis

What funding perception do you maintain that the overwhelming majority of your friends (75%+) don’t share?

In 2019, I made a decision to begin publicly answering the query above and including to it over time. You’ll be able to take a look at the complete thread here, however my current podcast with Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson touched on the identical subject so at their ‘nudging,’ I’m sharing the complete record under too.

Apologies for offending anybody prematurely!

David Allsopp on Twitter: "Reminder that the "triggered feminist" meme, much loved by internet arseholes everywhere, comes from a video where the lady is actually making pretty calm, rational arguments in a

Table of Contents


1. Investing primarily based on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical funding technique.

See our previous e-book, Shareholder Yield: A Higher Method to Dividend Investing, for more information, free obtain right here.

2. The Federal Reserve has accomplished a great job.

I publicly say on a regular basis that they need to simply peg the Fed Fund Charge to the 2-year, and my buddy Tom McClellan has a great chart illustrating this view…


3. Pattern following methods deserve a significant allocation to most portfolios.

Now we have most likely the very best pattern allocation of any RIA that I do know with our Trinity fashions, the default allocation is half!

4. A primary low price world market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the overwhelming majority of establishments over time.

See our previous GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here.

5. US traders must be allocating a minimal of fifty% of their inventory allocation to non-US nations.

Try our submit “The Case for International Investing” for more information.

6. 13F replication is a greater strategy to investing in most long-term hedge funds than investing within the hedge funds themselves.

Make investments with the Home free e-book obtain right here.

7. So long as you’ve among the principal components (world shares, bonds, actual belongings) your asset allocation doesn’t actually matter. What does matter is charges and taxes.

See our previous GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here. Plus, right here’s an previous Twitter thread on the subject.

8. A easy quant display screen on public shares will outperform most personal fairness funds.

Study extra about this by listening to my previous podcast episodes with Dan Rasmussen & Jeff Hooke.

9. An affordable timeframe to judge a supervisor or technique is 10, possibly 20 years.

We wrote a paper on this subject, you possibly can learn it right here.

10. I don’t really feel like I’ve to have an opinion on Telsa inventory.

Though I’ve shared my opinion with Elon on different matters earlier than (learn here)

11. A passive index isn’t the identical factor as a market cap index (anymore).


12. Monetary advisors and asset managers are 4x leveraged the inventory market, and will/ought to hedge that publicity….and even personal no US shares!

Learn our longer submit on the subject right here.

13. Most endowments and pensions could be higher off firing their workers and shifting to a scientific portfolio of ETFs.

You needed to know I wrote a weblog submit about this, proper? CalPERS lastly instructed me they gained’t rent me to do that. I attempted…


14. Everybody likes to complain about manipulation, THE FED, r/wsb, yadda yadda… Markets are functioning as they all the time have. Which is, usually. Brief squeeze? Yawn, been occurring endlessly. 

Jamie Catherwood had an awesome post on the historical past of quick squeezes. 

15. Excessive inventory market valuations usually are not justified by low rates of interest.

Learn my submit about this from January 2021 right here. 

16. A worldwide diversified portfolio of belongings is *much less dangerous* than placing your protected cash briefly time period bonds or payments.

This is without doubt one of the matters coated in The Keep Wealthy Portfolio submit. 


17. The CAPE Ratio is a helpful indicator and issue.

Right here’s my FAQ with every part you should know in regards to the CAPE Ratio. 

18. It doesn’t have an effect on your funding end result for those who personal US shares. You might personal 0% and just do nice.

Right here’s my tweet about this with the chart under. 


19. A portfolio of sovereign bonds weighted by yield is superior to at least one weighted by market cap and complete debt issuance.

Learn our white paper on this right here. 


20. Placing your entire cash into one asset, just like the S&P500, isn’t “boring”.

… to be continued …

Am I overestimating how a lot I disagree with others? What are beliefs you disagree along with your friends on? Be happy to answer to the unique thread here